How to Swing Trade During the Iran Conflict
Its been nearly 5 months since the Nasdaq made a new high in late October of last year.
We just saw the Nasdaq test the lows made in late November. Meanwhile, the small cap Russell 2000 reached correction levels on Monday. The first major index to reach that level which is defined as at least 10% off the highs.
The price of oil is soaring as oil fields are being shut down in the middle east as its too dangerous to export the oil by tanker at this point through the Strait of Hormuz.
Before succumbing to all the FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) online, its important to look at what markets are really doing at this point. The April futures contract for oil was selling for around $120 per barrel early Monday.
However, the November contract is in the mid $70s. This tells us that a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely at this point as Iran’s missile and drone stock has been greatly reduced already.
When Markets Bottom
Markets often bottom during a period of peak uncertainty with some kind of new legislation and/or Federal reserve policy changes taking shape.
When Silicon Valley Bank went under in early 2023, we went bullish shortly thereafter. One of the factors to turn us bullish was that the rescue plan was now being put in place by the Fed after peak fear and uncertainty. We pointed out that the huge Continental Illinois Bank failure and subsequent Fed action basically market the low in 1984.
The peak uncertainty often associated with a market low often occurs with the VIX volatility index surging past 40, perhaps for a few days, and then collapsing back well below that level. The VIX reached 35 earlier this week and then quickly retraced below 30. Perhaps this was close enough to a break above 40.
With Iran threatening oil shipping routes and water infrastructure in the middle east, we may not have reached peak uncertainty. However, its also possible that today basically marked the low for now.
How to Prepare for the Next Market Uptrend Before its Too Late
Last April we went bullish and told customers that the market was likely to rally into more and more trade deals being struck around the world. Also, the big beautiful bill was taking shape and the market often rallies ahead of these government stimulus packages.
Around that time we featured PLTR as one of our top picks which quickly doubled in price. Over the summer we featured MU which has soared over 300% since then. Many big winners reached a great technical entry point in the wake of that market correction low.
Corrections often last 5 to 10 weeks from high to low. Its been about 6 to 7 weeks since the peak for the S&P 500 and small cap Russell 2000.
Right now maybe the perfect time to prepare.
When to Get Aggressive
Soon after a bullish trend change signal in the overall market is often a great time to get more active swing trading. We want to see both the trend change signal and great technical patterns working on individual stocks.
Our top pick this week is already up about 10% from our entry trigger price. It held a 1.5% stop below the technical entry point while making this move.
The only other stock we featured this week that reached the entry trigger is up nearly 15% from the entry point on day 1.
Both stocks held a 1.5% stop below the ideal technical entry point. Again, this is so important when trading.
You cannot manage your risk very well when you let stocks go 20%, 30%, 50% or more below your entry point. Trading is all about finding the ideal asymmetric risk/reward situations and entry points on the right stocks. Let your losses run and you really expose yourself when trading. Its tough to manage risk tightly with a ranking system or buy and hold, but its a big advantage of technical trading when done well. A big part of this is knowing what an ideal trade is to begin with.
Many long-term successful traders say that trading is all about risk management. I could not agree with that more.
Keys to Success With the Iran Conflict Still Going
One of the keys to success is to understand which industries and sectors will be less affected by a temporary rise in oil prices. One of these sectors is healthcare.
This led us to ANAB being the top pick for the week after one of the more impressive earnings reports this quarter. It easily cruised 10% higher from our technical entry point while holding a very tight stop after the price reached it. We have already taken some profits and raised the stop on the remainder to protect profits.
Last night we featured a great stock breaking out of an ascending base pattern with rapidly improving margins and reasonable valuation. Its also a stock less impacted by higher oil prices and actually stands a chance to benefit from more spending on military training and online education.
The stock has surged over 15% so far today and is holding up nicely. A great spot to take some big 1 day profits for subscribers and raise your stop on the remainder.
Another key to success right now is to realize that more fear and uncertainty will make it difficult to do well on stocks under $25. Again, we want to see a really big catalyst near a good technical entry point with lower priced stocks. Otherwise, risk management is difficult at best.
Time will tell if the Nasdaq and S&P 500 will hold the 200 day moving average in the weeks ahead. We may find out next week with the Fed meeting and statements on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see which way the market heads after the statement and press conference afterwards.
Keep in mind that stocks more affected by high oil prices could rebound strongly after the Strait of Hormuz re-opens.
The Best Way to Not Miss the Next Market Rally
This is a perfect time to learn our top swing trading strategies for rapid account growth. The next market rally is likely just around the corner. Once the Strait of Hormuz re-opens, stocks could surge higher quickly so you want to prepare ahead of time.
To ensure you have a chance to learn great strategies now, we are offering next boot camp at a discounted rate given the new bonuses also offered. The next boot camp will be starting soon.
This 1 week boot camp will give you the individualized help you need to take your trading to the next level. The latest boot camp also delivers our new training modules for a great position trading strategy that we recently developed to go for the next MU, PLTR, APP, etc… with low risk while going for a double, triple or more.
Our first top pick for 2026 was SNDK. A stock that soared 150% within several weeks while holding a 2% stop below the ideal technical entry point we listed in the daily alert service. An incredible low risk/high reward position trade.
This is the type of opportunity we will be covering in the boot camp and how to go for more of these true home run opportunities while taking much lower risk.
Now is the Time to Learn These Strategies
In each of the first 3 boot camps, we showed the difference between the typical “good” trading opportunity versus an ideal swing trading opportunity daily and in real time during each boot camp last year.
Just by following a great set of trade selection and entry/exit rules you could have done well during a down week for the market in each of those boot camps.
How to Get Ready for the Next Market Rally
In the boot camp we will be going over what we are looking for before becoming more bullish and aggressive trading in the current market.
Help us schedule the ideal times of day, days of the week, topics covered, etc…. You can let us know your preferences in this new survey.
The results will be used to tailor the perfect trading boot camp for your needs. The survey takes just a few minutes. Those who fill out the survey receive a big discount on the next trading boot camp.
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