The Best Month of the Year to Swing Trade
Last week was another strong week for the market and our top strategies for rapid account growth.
In a prior blog post, we talked about how averaging 4% to 5% per trade (averaging wins and losses with a tight stop) can quickly grow a small trading account to 6 or 7 seven figures in less than 100 trades.
Our top swing trading opportunity for this past week reached our entry trigger price on Wednesday and is already up over 6% from that point.
2 stocks skyrocketed for those using the rapid account growth course instructions carefully to find and trade only the ideal high tight flag breakouts based on over 10 years trading experience and multiple back-tests.
AVAV is a good example. Those using the course rules are up over 20% in just 3 trading days on their remaining position kept after the first profit target was reached.
AEVA met the course rules and is already up over 15% from the entry trigger price in just 2 days. Both held the tight stop-loss level taught in the course which is based on back-testing hundreds of these ideal trading patterns.
What to Watch for Next Week and in July
A LOT of ideal high tight flags are setting up right now. So its very good to be picky.
We continue to see a lower win rate in stocks below $25 and historically low win rate sectors like energy and other commodity-related stocks. And ADRs are more hit or miss, as usual, with some notable nice winners like EPSM.
During the recent boot camp, there was some confusion about how to identify a true high, tight flag. Both the “high” and “tight” part of it are really important as revealed in our back-testing and is covered extensively in these videos.
In a future blog post we will be going over multiple high tight flags setting up and how to tell the difference between just a plain vanilla bull flag and true high tight flags as we define it and was defined in the back-testing.
Is July Really the Best Month for the Market and Swing Trading?
A lot of talking heads are suddenly saying that July is the best month for the market going back to 1928.
And they are correct.
The average return is 1.7% for the month of July while April is the second best month at 1.4%, December is third at 1.3% and fourth is January at 1.2%.
However, when you look at just the past 75 years (since 1950), December is the best month followed closely by November and then July. Over the past 20 years, July has been the best month again with October through December also being very strong.
What is real interesting is that July has been a positive month for stocks for 10 years in a row. So we are going for 11 out of 11 in 2025.
But Does Seasonality Really Matter?
Not as much as other factors but it is one factor to consider. For instance, I never “sell in May and go away”. That would have been real costly this year.
We go by the current market trend and also look at how many stocks are forming very bullish technical patterns and how they are acting. Right now, we have a LOT of great stocks in the most bullish technical pattern. And the market is making higher swing lows and higher swing highs.
Another great sign is that the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have now closed at all-time highs after the 22% correction earlier this year. This break to new highs is like ringing the dinner bell for a lot of traders.
Once we get a bullish technical signal in the market, like the one reported to customers in April, we start to get more aggressive. The top strategy for rapid account growth is our top choice along with the top earnings gap trades.
We also look at stocks less affected by what drove the market lower in the first place. This is why we featured stocks like SPOT and NFLX in April. 2 stocks that formed nice bullish double bottom patterns near highs and have taken off since.
So What About This July?
Until the market trend changes, we continue to trade the best technical setups. Market uptrends only last so long so we need to take full advantage of them.
Although more tariffs are coming for Canada, the impact of the digital services tax just passed is only about $2 billion on US companies. So perhaps the administration will raise tariffs by 5% to 10% to equal that amount.
As long as we are sticking to our stop-losses, taking profits when stocks reach our targets and just wait for the best opportunities on great stocks, we should be able to make hay in July and beyond until we get a bearish market signal. Even then, the ideal strategies for rapid account growth have still been doing pretty well. We trade the top 20% of all high tight flag breakouts as defined in the rapid account growth course.
The reason we were not bearish later in April is because the tariffs can be adjusted at any time. And its pretty unlikely that a new administration is going to make policy without some kind of back door if needed, such as being able to ship through countries that have lower tariffs. Plus, trade deals and clarity on government spending and taxation would be growing in the weeks and months ahead.
Also, the Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates at some point later this year. A cutting cycle is still more likely than a raising cycle even if inflation goes to 3.5% temporarily once the full impact of tariffs are felt in the months ahead.
But the market trend tells us most of what we need to know. And with our top strategy for rapid account growth, the first profit target is usually reached within 2 days anyway. By then we have already sewn up a profit. So its much less likely to be impacted by new macro and geopolitical news.
This is another reason to focus on the top earnings gaps and high tight flag breakouts that reach a good technical entry point. Swing trades with longer hold times often run into some trouble at the end of July through early August. You often see the market pull back some time in early August.
But the rest of July tends to be very good.
Without knowing which trades have the much higher win rate with the shorter average hold time, I would be real picky about which ones you trade.
A Detailed List of What We Look for in an Ideal Swing Trade
How to Rapidly Grow a Small Trading Account
The Importance of Overhead Resistance When Trading
Our Latest Top Trading Setups with Great Technicals AND Fundamentals
