Tradetobefree.com, LLC, Investment Advisory Services, Cary, NC

Swing Trading Stocks During Q2 Earnings Season

 In Swing Trading, Trend Trading

 

Earnings season kicks off next week.  One of the keys to our strategies and many other successful strategies is to have a big catalyst with a great technical pattern on a terrific stock.

 

The few weeks just ahead of earnings season tends to be, well, meh when trading.  The big money swoops in during earnings season after companies report earnings.

 

Its hard to get too excited by a stock like Levis with little growth affected by ever changing tariffs.  Levis is one of the early reporters that reported their earnings last week.

 

Its a great company and brand but we would like to see better growth along with a very good valuation.

 

For a value stock we want to see a great valuation.  If its a growth stock we want to see consistently strong and then accelerating growth in an industry with good relative strength with a growth stock valuation at least somewhat reasonable.

 

What to Look for in Q2 Earnings Season

 

The big money is going to be made starting around the time Netflix reports.  We may have 1 or 2 great swing trading opportunities over the next week but earnings season tends to heat up after the Netflix report.  From there, the next few weeks is usually where we have a shot at making the big bucks trading.

 

Normally the banks offer poor swing trading opportunities until then.

 

However, the banking index recently broke out of a double bottom with handle pattern and reached new 52-week highs.  A potential steeper yield curve ahead could draw in more investors after earnings.  So we will be watching the price action after great bank earnings reports.

 

After breaking to new 52-week highs, the banking index has formed a narrow consolidation.  A pretty bullish look heading into bank earnings starting on Tuesday.  However, this tends to be a better look for growth stocks and not for banks which tend to move more slowly out of these patterns.  If they move much at all.

 

It will be mostly banks reporting for the first week or two of earnings season starting on Tuesday.  Earnings season always starts this way with mostly banks for the first couple weeks.

 

We will be watching the first few big beat and raise quarters to see how the banks react to great reports.  Its also worth noting what bank executives say about the state of the economy in their conference calls.

 

When to Enter a Swing Trade During Earnings Season

 

We are NOT looking to validate our macro crystal ball forecasts when trading.  We want to see good price action after news on stocks in long-term uptrends mostly.  As we have seen many times over the past few years, macro calls are often wrong.

 

Again, its not about what we think the market should do or will do when trading.  Its about studying the price action and noting what the market and stocks are actually doing after really good or really bad earnings news.  We want to understand what is driving the market and make sure our assessment of what the stock price should do matches the current price action early on after news.

 

During some earnings seasons, you see a sell the news reaction to good earnings reports early during earnings season and then a buy the news reaction in other industries later in earnings season.  So its important to note these shifts when they start.

 

We also want to get a strong feel for how stocks are reacting to really bullish or bearish news after earnings.  We often use a very tight stop when entering a trade right after a big beat and raise quarter.

 

Over the past decade, we have noticed that the really big winners tend to hold a tight stop below the breakout point.  And we generally do not try to get in ahead of the breakout.  Too often stocks will reject a good technical entry point without breaking above it.  The breakout point is often a key resistance which will act as resistance.  Until it doesn’t.

 

How We Will Be Swing Trading Q2 Earnings Season

 

When in doubt, be patient and cherry pick the best swing trading opportunities.  Very few companies will have a big beat and raise quarter.  To us it makes no sense to buy ahead of the quarter.

 

This is because a very small percentage of great stocks will report a big beat and raise quarter.

 

We can usually predict which ones will have a solid beat with a good win rate.  However, no one knows what the cost side of the equation will be, how margins will look and how management will adjust their guidance.

 

So you often get a great earnings report on the surface but the stock gaps a lot lower on poor guidance or some other bearish factor revealed in the earnings report or conference call.

 

However, you can always check after the report to see if the report, long-term chart and post-market trading action are screaming buy or not.  This gives you a chance to actually see the results and go through the conference call before making a swing trading decision.

 

For instance, last quarter we talked about the SEZL report right after it was released.  We said it could be a rocket ship but needed a little wider stop than we typically would use on an earnings breakout in the closing comments in the daily alert service for those comfortable with a buy now – pay later company.

 

The stock reached the entry trigger the next morning taught in the rapid account growth course, held the stop mentioned in the daily alert, and then soared 150% from there quickly.

 

Patience is Key

 

Of course, few stocks will have this type of enormous earnings and sales beat.  So patience is required to wait for the enormous beat and raise quarters.

 

Patience in terms of waiting for your pitch.  And just like major league sluggers, you are lucky to get a home run every fourth game played.  But there are a lot more base hits in between home runs and grand slams to keep scoring points with some account growth in this case.

 

Think 1 to 4 ideal trades per week.  If you find yourself entering a lot more swing trades during Q2 earnings season, you may not be focused enough to do well.

 

We will be checking the biggest gaps each evening and morning to find the best stocks, in an ideal price range, moving higher after hours after a big earnings beat.  The gap has to be big enough to get our attention.

 

SEZL did not gap 4% higher and then soar 150% from there.  No, it gapped more than 20% higher.  The other big winners in the service featured right after news tended to have big earnings gaps before soaring 50% to 200% higher within several weeks from the entry point the day after the earnings report.

 

How You Can Prepare Over the Weekend for Earnings Season

 

Of course, the daily alert will have a lot of the biggest winners just as they are taking off.  We often have these right after a big beat and raise quarter.

 

To prepare for potential big breakouts over the weekend, one thing you can do is look at an earnings calendar for the week ahead.  The following video is a snippet from the March trading boot camp showing you the first steps in organizing your watch list ahead of a potential big earnings breakout.

 

 

 

Of course you want to have a winning trading plan in place beforehand which should be based on a lot of experience and/or hundreds of hours of research if you are developing your own swing trading strategy.  You can also grab our top 2 strategies for rapid account growth below.  Our earnings eruptions strategy is also excellent for the current market focusing on the top echelon beat and raise quarters.

 

The following blog articles go over how to develop your own trading plan and one of our go to exit strategies which would have worked great on SEZL and a lot of the other big earnings breakouts over the past year.  You can also purchase our top 2 strategies for rapid small account growth using the link below to get a big head start.

 

 

 

Create a Winning Trading Plan Blog Post

 

Great Exit Plan Towards the Bottom of this Article

 

How to Make Money on Earnings Reports

 

Deal on Our Top 2 Strategies for Rapid Account Growth

 

 

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